Week 8 Thursday evening (Packers at Cardinals)
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Arizona Cardinals are the 6.5-point favorites against a game-smashed Green Bay Packers team with a total of 51.0 points. This causes the implied score to be 28.75-22.25 in favor of the cards.
For those unfamiliar with one-game slates feature five flex points with the same score as the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an “MVP” slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his fantasy points total, which makes this spot crucial.
Our Brandon Gdula took a deep dive into unique game strategy. It’s worth checking out before you line up.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($ 17,000)
Kyler Murray is the obvious MVP choice, and our projections back it up as we predict him for 23.0 FanDuel points, 4.0 more than anyone else.
As Murray rushes for 33.2 fewer yards per game this year than he did a campaign ago, which is certainly remarkable, he has consistently run for 3 touchdowns and an average of 6.1 races per game. And he’s doing a lot more in the air than he’s done in previous seasons, throwing for 286 yards per game and 17 tuddies in seven outings while averaging 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt. Murray threw 26 touchdowns all last year and averaged just 248.2 passing yards per game on 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt.
In short, Murray still produces elite numbers; it just does it in a different way. He averaged 24.4 FanDuel points per game last year and is at 24.8 per game this season.
Against a Green Bay defense that will be without top corner Jaire Alexander, Murray could leave and his rushed cap could return, as Green Bay allowed the more rushed second yards to signal callers.
Aaron Rodgers, packers ($ 15,000)
This is going to be strange for the Packers. They are missing a few key players in attack, including Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, and Green Bay’s implied total fell to 22.25 points as road dogs at 6.5 points.
I don’t know what the Green Bay offense will look like, and I also don’t know what the impact of it all will be on The popularity of Aaron Rodgers’ MVP. I guess losing Adams will bring it down considerably, and it’s also a tough clash against a strong Arizona defense. Then again, it’s Aaron Rodgers, so maybe he’ll always be a chalky MVP choice.
I know I am very interested in using it in the multiplier spot, especially if it looks like the masses will be scared. With Green Bay expected to see a negative play script, we could get a lot of Rodgers setbacks, and our model is projecting him for 19.0 FanDuel points.
Aaron Jones, Packers ($ 12,500)
It could be an Aaron Jones night.
Green Bay’s receiver shortage might look something like what we saw with Alvin Kamara last Monday, where the New Orleans Saints channeled a ton of their attack – rushing and receiving – through their stud. Jones’ pass chops are good enough that he can replicate that kind of performance, and he’s second on the team in red zone targets (eight). And if the The packers come out ahead, Green Bay could surf the field.
On the negative side, the Cards give up the third fewest FanDuel points per game to the ball carriers (16.2).
But Jones’ potential volume outweighs any pairing concerns, and we forecast him for 16.0 FanDuel points, seeing him as a slightly better point per dollar option than Rodgers.
DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals ($ 12,000)
DeAndre Hopkins is my kind of MVP option – a little weird but not super weird.
Hopkins has been a bit meh – by his standards – throughout this season. His 60.0 yards per game is his worst score since 2016, and his 22% target share is down seven percentage points from last year’s 29% clip.
The bright spots are that Nuk still gets a nice 31% aerial yards share, and usage looks a lot better if we focus only on the last three games, a period in which Hopkins recorded a target share of 27. % and a share of aerial work sites of 39%. . He was also heavily targeted in the red zone, seeing 11 red zone looks and turning them into 7 catches – all of which were hit.
Facing a stoned Packers high school, Hopkins is capable of an explosive game tonight, and we screened him for 13.7 FanDuel points. He’s the last legitimate MVP option, as the four players I’ve put in this section are the only four we’ve determined to score double-digit FanDuel points.
Christian Kirk, Cardinals ($ 11,000)
I’m much more a fan of Christian Kirk than of AJ Green, a similar salary ($ 10,500).
In the last three games, Kirk has beaten Green in target share (19% -12%) and aerial worksite share (26-24%). While Green holds the advantage over snaps, Kirk has recorded snap rates of 85% and 72% in his last two outings, and Kirk’s big play ability is ideal for single-game slates.
To be fair, our projections don’t really like Green or Kirk, projecting Kirk for 8.0 FanDuel points and Green for 7.0.
Chase Edmonds ($ 9,500) and James Conner ($ 10,000), cardinals
Chase Edmonds edged out James Conner in all games except one. Edmonds has at least three targets in every game, while Conner has zero or one target in six of the seven outings, the only exception being a two-target game.
The only place Conner has the advantage is near the goal line, but that’s a big advantage.
VSonner has 11 runs in the 10 while Edmonds has 6. Conner has seven runs in the five, and Edmonds has two. As a result, Conner has six bosses and Edmonds is yet to score. Edmonds isn’t a total of zero in the red zone, but his best chance to score is on a longer play.
Our algorithm has Edmonds projected for 9.7 points and Conner at 9.3. Both are viable choices, and despite the low volume in the red zone, Edmonds is the guy I’m leaning towards.
Adams represented 33% of the Packers’ targets and 42% of the air yards. Lazard has recorded a snap rate of at least 85% in three consecutive times. There are a lot of Targets and Takes up for grabs for the Pack.
Randall Cobb ($ 7,000), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($ 6,500) and Robert Tonyan ($ 8,000) are the biggest beneficiaries, and Amari Rodgers ($ 5,500) is a decent dart throw.
MVS could be active tonight. He hasn’t played since Week 3, but has participated in between 63% and 66% of snaps in each of the first three games, seeing 16% of targets and 37% of aerial yards during that time. While it’s fair to fear he isn’t 100% and rushed to help in an emergency, MVS deserves to be considered if he fits.
Cobb has been in at least 55% of the snaps in two of his last three games and could be close to a player with every snap in this one. We know Aaron Rodgers and Cobb have great chemistry. Although Cobb only got a target 8% share during the season, he could operate as Green Bay’s main receiver regardless of MVS status.
Tonyan – the owner of a target 12% share for the year – will likely play an increased role as well. He played 68% of the snaps last week but is projecting a little worse, according to our numbers, than MVS and Cobb despite earning more than both.
We have Cobb and Valdes-Scantling goes for 8.4 and 8.3 FanDuel points, respectively, while Tonyan has a projection of 7.8. Check the status of MVS.
Value / Differentiators
Rondale Moore, Cardinals ($ 7,500)
Rondale Moore is a fun lottery ticket with the two highest single-game snapshot shares in the past two weeks (52% and 56%).
While the 13% rookie target share and 4% airyard share won’t excite anyone too much, he has elite abilities after the capture, and Arizona has made keys to him quite often this year. ; they want the ball in his hands.
Employee around the Packers pass catchers, Moore could go unnoticed on this slate.
AJ Dillon, packers ($ 6,500)
I can see a storyline where the Packers split Jones more than usual, resulting in a lot of clichÃ©s for AJ Dillon.
Dillon had had a lot of work going before last week, running the ball 15, 8, and 11 times from Weeks 4-6 with 5 targets during that time. It came to a screeching halt last week when he groped twice and recorded just three runs and two targets. But with the Packers running out of playmakers, Dillon and Jones could share a lot of ground together in this one.