Ohio State vs Penn State Odds, Picks and Predictions
Ohio State has incinerated every defense in its path, and while Penn State won’t turn around, we think it’s much more likely to fight fire with fire. Find out why our college football picks support the Over for this Big Ten showdown.
At this point, it seems inevitable that once again the winner of the regular season finale between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan will be the de facto Big Ten champions. But if there’s one team that might have something to say about it, it’s the Penn State Nittany Lions.
The one-loss Nittany Lions host the undefeated Buckeyes at Happy Valley this weekend. Can Penn State overcome a juggernaut Ohio State offense and be upset with more than two touchdown passes? Or will he be crushed by CJ Stroud and Co. like everyone else on the way to the Buckeyes so far?
I break it all down and bring you my best bet with my college football picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Penn State on Saturday, October 27.
Ohio State vs Penn State Best Odds
Ohio State vs Penn State picks and predictions
For my money, Ohio State has the best offense in the nation (sorry, Tennessee fans). That high-octane offense took the Buckeyes to a 7-0 record and quarterback CJ Stroud is the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
The State of Ohio can attack you in many ways. The team has a seemingly endless supply of stud receivers. Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Josh Flemming all average at least 15 yards per catch and have scored at least six touchdowns. Oh, and top wide player Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be back this week.
Meanwhile, running backs Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson have each combined for nearly 1,000 yards on 6.4 yards per carry and 13 scores. This balance and depth of talent means this team ranks fourth in total offense and second in scoring offense, posting 49.6 points per game.
Basically, Penn State’s defense will have their hands full. The Nittany Lions have a strong secondary, but the rush defense is starting to show cracks, giving up nearly five yards per carry over its last three games. That includes giving up a whopping 418 yards to Michigan in a 41-17 loss two weeks ago.
But defending a team with so many weapons exhausts you. Look what happened in Iowa last week. The Hawkeyes managed to keep him somewhat close. But long drive after long drive by the Buckeyes and, before you know it, there’s a 50-burger in a 54-10 win. And that’s an objectively better Iowa defense.
However, head coach James Franklin will have his team for this game and give Ohio State their best effort. But I think it lends itself better to betting the total than supporting the Nittany Lions as dogs.
Sean Clifford looked healthy last week, leading his team to a 45-17 win over Minnesota. With Clifford under center, it’s a balanced offense, with improved offensive line play and the emergence of freshman running back Nicholas Singleton.
They will face off against an improving but mostly untested Ohio State defense. The Nittany Lions should be able to score 17-24 points at home, and that will be enough to send this one over the count.
my best bet: More than 60.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Ohio State vs Penn State spread analysis
The line for this Big Ten battle is a bit of a no-man’s land at 15.5 and hasn’t seen much movement from that number Thursday morning.
Much will be made of the fact that James Franklin is 0-10 in his last 10 meetings against the top 10 teams, including that loss to Michigan on Oct. 15. Penn State is also 0-5 SU in the last five meetings. against Ohio State. But the Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in those games, dropping an average of just seven points and never more than 13.
Like I said, Franklin usually prepares his team for this game. And generally, I like to get more than two touchdowns at home with Penn State.
But this Ohio State offense is so dangerous. Expect to see some big games from running backs Henderson and Williams after what the Wolverines did to them a few weeks ago. It will force Penn State’s defense to come clean and open things up to an already great Stroud.
The 15.5 line tells me that bettors aren’t quite sure which direction this one will go, and the same goes for me. So I will stay away.
Covers college football betting analysis
Ohio State vs. Penn State Over/Under Analysis
Obviously, I feel pretty good about the Over here. Ohio State has amassed at least 49 points in its four conference games so far. That includes 50 burgers against Iowa and Wisconsin, two theoretically good defenses.
With the Buckeyes working so hard on offense, it’s no surprise the over bets are 4-0 in those four games. On top of that, they’ve overshot by more than nine points per game.
Meanwhile, Ohio State’s defense is giving up an average of 15.3 points per game in Big Ten play, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you’re averaging 50, it easily lowers the totals. in the low 60s, and Penn State has arguably the most capable offense the Buckeyes have faced all season.
Going 5-0 in Ohio State Big Ten games looks like a solid bet.
Ohio State vs Penn State Betting Trend You Need to Know
The Over is 5-0 in Ohio State’s last five games and 4-0 in Penn State’s last four games against teams with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Ohio State vs. Penn State.
Match info Ohio State vs Penn State
|Location:||Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania|
|Date:||Saturday, October 29, 2022|
|To start up:||12:00 p.m. ET|
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