It’s draft day!!! – Dynasty Nerds
It’s finally draft day, nerds! How many times have you seen Kevin Costner say, “I want my picks back, and I want David fucking Putney, just because I want to!” I’ve only done it twice, but I promise you will as you read this.
I hosted The Daily Draft Report on the Campus2Canton podcast feed and was able to chat with over 60 draft analysts on over 75 prospects. The narratives around this draft and each perspective varied wildly, as with any draft I can remember. We don’t know anything, and this might be the craziest first ride we’ve ever seen.
How many QBs go to Round 1?
The QB position is the most important in football; It’s not a secret. It’s also not unspoken that it’s one of the weakest ranks for the job in recent history. I watched the arc throughout the offseason. Our industry has had its ups and downs through different trajectories for each of the prospects, and we are no more stable than we were on January 11th.
The Panthers (6th pick), Falcons (8th), Seahawks (9th) and Steelers (20th) all need QBs now and now have draft capital. New Orleans pick 19 could go QB or roll with Jameis Winston. A team with an aging veteran like the Commanders (11th) could also cause a stir and target a QB. Plus, Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo could still find their way into new situations and perhaps at little cost.
The QBs most likely to be drafted tonight are Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and possibly Matt Corral. All four are talented, and all four have many questions and concerns. Pickett is likely the first to leave the roster, but has had a great season after several massively inconsistent ones. Willis has the most upside but possibly the lowest crush-and-burn floor, out of the league in three years. Ridder has been on a roller coaster, and he was my QB5 in January and now looks like a consensus QB in the first round. And Corral has questions but arguably an advantage just below Willis’, but many see his low floor.
The consensus is very much at odds on how many people will ultimately make it to the first round. In most places the over/under is 2.5, but I’ve seen 3.5, and I’d take that lower if you’re a bettor. Where I’m leaning at this point is also under the 2.5.
I think two QBs are drafted in the first round, but I’m not putting a lot of money on that one. I don’t think we see more than three, yet at the same time, we could see up to four.
Do we ever have 1 RB?
The short answer is no, but the way I see a lot of fictional projects with people I trust, Breece Hall could get that elite project capital. The Buffalo Bills are the sexy pick at No. 25 to take over Iowa State. Maybe the Eagles, Cardinals or Chiefs will try RB, but I don’t see them as serious first-round options.
It all depends on who’s on the board, and I could see the Bills looking like another outstanding player – some elite defensemen could be in play. Hall could be there at pick 57; if not, Kenneth Walker III should be, and the Bills could go that route.
Ultimately, I’m leaning towards not seeing an RB selected on day one, and I’d take the least on a 0.5 bet on that. I’m not betting on the farm, but I’d be more comfortable with a little more on that.
Money Makers: GREAT RECEIVERS
Man, I wish I could go back and be a WR. I would work harder and give it my all! Receivers were banking this offseason, and this incoming crop of WRs is deep and has some potential WR1s.
I have four in this level; Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams and Drake London. This quartet has the potential to be a WR1 on any team they land. All four are very similar and bring such different skills. Wilson is refined, reliable and catches everything. Burks can outrun any DB and has deceptive speed for a massive framed WR with monstrous hands. Williams destroyed college football last year and has yet to show what her ceiling is. London is another great WR with excellent run after catching ability, and we’ve barely seen what he’s capable of. These four, I believe, have their names called tonight.
A few other guys got to hear their names called, and we got to see a historic first round for the receivers. Six times in the last decade six WRs have been taken in the first round, and I believe that’s the sweet spot tonight. Receivers like Chris Olave, Skyy Moore, Jahan Dotson and even George Pickens – I HIGHLY doubt Pickens – have been mocked as possible first-round picks.
A litany of teams need it, and six in the first round are within the realm of possibility. Texans (3rd), Jets (4th, 10th), Giants (5th, 7th), Commanders (11th), Eagles (15th, 18th), Packers (22nd, 28th), Titans (26th) and Chiefs (29th, 30th) all have a need WR. The Packers and Chiefs could theoretically take two evenly. It could be a huge night for the receiving class.
Plus/minus is 5.5 in most places. It’s right on the line and a bet I’m uncomfortable with. I think it’s five or six first round first legs. The depth of the position could make some teams wait, and only four or five will be selected. Or teams go crazy and see the depth of other positions, and we see seven in the first round. Personally, I’m going below, and I believe we see five WRs taken tonight.
Who owns the IDP? Yeah, you know me!
I won’t bore you too much with the IDP, as I know most don’t mess with the format. This draft is full of bad IDP assets, and we’ll see plenty of them taken tonight in Las Vegas.
The biggest names are Aidan Hutchinson from Michigan and Kayvon Thibodeaux from Oregon. Both guys should see their names called in the top ten picks, and both have the potential to be IDP EDGE’s top guys for the next decade. I love Thibo’s advantage, and he has remained the best player in the class for me since the first ranking set I put up in the class.
Purdue’s George Karlaftis, Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson and Georgia’s Travon Walker should all be called to the podium early. They will be in DE/EDGE discussions for a long time, and all have DL1/DL2 potential in IDP. Georgia’s bestial DT Jordan Davis will also find his name in the spotlight tonight and could be a major asset for the IDPs in the DT-premium leagues.
I love this class of linebacker; I think we could see several good IDP artists led by Devin Lloyd from Utah. He’s a slightly older prospect but does it all and should be the first LB to come off the board midway through the first round. Georgia’s Nakobe Dean or Wyoming’s Chad Muma have a shot at winning the first-round capital, and I love their IDP prospects. I think Dean makes the cut tonight, and we’ll hear Muma’s name tomorrow night.
Cornerbacks are fun and we’ll see at least four of them come off the board in the first round. Derek Stingley Jr of LSU is the brand name and has the highest potential in the class. Don’t count out Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr.. Both guys play like alpha dogs and can tackle receivers. Washington’s Trent McDuffie and Florida’s Kaiir Elam could also be called up tonight.
Finally, safety! Golden-Domer Kyle Hamilton is the brand name, and he’s my second highest rated player in the class. He can do it all and will be a STUD in the NFL. Georgia’s Lewis Cine and Michigan’s Daxton Hill could also be drafted tonight, and both are great IDP assets. The movie is my favorite security in the classroom; he plays like he’s the best player on the field and he’s played with half a dozen other defensemen who will be drafted this year.
The over/under on defensive players taken in the first round is widely listed at 15.5. I will take over on this number. Receiver depth and lack of first-round QB and RB options will increase defensive numbers. I continue to suggest 17 for defensive guys, so I like the 15.5 number.
Grab a beer and sit down!
The offseason is often a chore as we wait for the next big event in our schedules. Where we can sit back and enjoy something happening in the game we love! No more Twitter arguments, wild takes, arguments for nothing. It’s time to move on to a real event.
Above all, take everything I say with a grain of salt. Football is my favorite sport. I like to bet casually and will make all the bets I noted above, but I don’t bet big money. I doubt I put more than $60 on the project because I love it, and the money spoils my fun. Football is my escape, and I don’t want to stress about it!
We did it on draft day. Watch Costner’s portrayal of a terrible GM one more time, and let’s move on to the 2022 NFL Draft. Thanks everyone for reading all of the Dynasty Nerds profiles! We have tons of additional coverage coming after the weekend!
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