Expect a close match between the Pac-12 competitors

Arizona State vs Oregon State Odds

Arizona State and Oregon State are both firmly second in their respective divisions in the Pac 12. Both still have a chance to win their divisions, but both need help.

If Oregon loses this week to Utah, the State of Oregon can win and take control of the Pac-12. This includes a late-season showdown against the rival Ducks.

The state of Arizona needs a little more help. The Sun Devils need to win too, but they need Utah to give up their next two. Utah could lose to Oregon this week, but gets a weak Colorado next week.

With a lot at stake, it has all the assets for a good nightcap on Saturday.

The state of Arizona wants to put it in your throat

You can’t talk about the Sun Devils offense without starting with their running game. It’s one of the best racing units in all of football and the metrics back it up.

Arizona State is currently fifth in Rush Success and third in Line Yards. It’s the result of a double-threat quarterback at Jayden Daniels paired with a running stud at Rachaad White.

The duo totaled 1,407 rushing yards and 19 rushing touchdowns. Daniels can also air a little, throwing for 1,969 yards, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions over the season.

The Sun Devils will be looking to kick the ball on an Oregon State defense that is well below par to stop the run.

If Daniels can eliminate the mistakes, he could take ASU’s offense to another level. The Sun Devils’ Havoc Allowed was the Achilles heel of that offense, ranking below the national average at 74th.

Arizona state defense must wreak havoc

This defense needs to be prepared for what’s to come because, like the Sun Devils, Oregon State has one of the best racing units in football.

This may be of concern, as the State of Arizona currently ranks 45th in Def Rush Success and 75th in Def Line Yards.

The interesting aspect to watch for this defense will be how often it wreaks havoc. The Sun Devils are ranked 27th above the nation average and face an offense from the state of Oregon which is one of the safest teams, placing in the top 5 nationwide.

It may very well depend on who has the ball last, so Havoc will play a bigger role than ever.

Beavers also rely on the running game

Pretty much anything I said about the Arizona state offense could be copied and pasted here, as these two are nearly identical.

While Arizona State does most of its damage with a double-threat quarterback and a running back, the State of Oregon relies on only one runner and his name is BJ Baylor.

Baylor has been one of the best running backs in football, leading the State of Oregon to sixth in Rush Success and first in Line Yards. He has benefited greatly from a dominant offensive line, accumulating 1,050 yards and 12 touchdowns so far this season.

Where the state of Oregon does its damage is every time it enters the 40. If Beavers can start out with a good position on the court, you can expect points to be. listed on the board. This is a unit that ranks fourth in Finishing Drives.

Oregon State Fights Defense

While the offense has gone out of its way to get Oregon State in the race for the Pac-12 title, the defense has been a whole different story.

This unit has been on fire all season and risks the same in this clash. The Beavers rank 90th in Def Rush Success and 102nd in Big Plays. Not ideal.

While Oregon State has one of the best offensive lines in football, the Beavers shockingly have one of the worst defensive lines, ranking 110th in Pass Rush. Daniels will have plenty of time in his pocket to shoot the right shot when the Sun Devils choose to make it.

Correspondence analysis between the State of Arizona and the State of Oregon

Toggle the drop-down lists below to hide or show the statistical correspondence between the State of Arizona and the State of Oregon:

Arizona State Offense Against Oregon State Defense

Oregon State Offense Against Arizona State Defense

Pace of play / Other
Attacking PFF 66 104
Blanket 45 69
Middle 8 30 23
SP + Special Teams 86 52
Readings per minute 102 90
Peak rate 61.1% (22) 61.7% (19)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP +, PFF, and SportSource Analytics.

Arizona State vs. Oregon State Betting Pick

In a game that will feature a lot of racing, I have to side with the house dogs.

Motivated solely by the conference championship, Oregon State will come in with a desperate need for victory. While the number implies it’s tight, this game will have live exchanges written all over it.

With both defenses missing, Arizona State Havoc Allowed will decide the game.

The Oregon State defense will need all the help they can get, and packing a turnout or two will go a long way to upending the Beavers.

I will look to buy the other side if Arizona State drops to +3 or better. I will also be watching a play live while I wait for how the State of Oregon is doing to stop the big play.

It may very well depend on which team has the ball last.

To take: Oregon State +3

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